This has been a difficult time for many coal and nuclear power companies in the past few years as countless coal and multiple nuclear power plants have been shut down. In an era of abundant natural gas and relatively cheap gas due to advances in hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling technology, most casualties are in financial trouble.
According to estimates by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, the technical resource potential of offshore wind energy in the United States exceeds 2,000 GW, or 7,200 TWh of annual power generation. In context, this is almost double the country’s current electricity consumption. Although there is currently only 30 MW of offshore installed capacity operating, this can reduce people’s enthusiasm for offshore wind power.
On December 5, the Connecticut Department of Energy and Environmental Protection announced that it had selected developer Vineyard Wind to bid to advance negotiations with the electric utility to supply 804 MW offshore wind power through the development of the Park City wind project. In a press release, the Park City project’s offer is lower than any other offshore wind project publicly announced in North America.
In the first half of 2019, the average cost of offshore wind energy dropped by 24%, during which the onshore wind energy dropped by 10%. The financial consultancy and asset management company reports that the cost of renewable energy continues to fall, and certain technologies (such as onshore wind and utility-scale solar) have competed with conventional power generation on a cost basis on new builds a few years ago And continue to maintain its competitiveness. Marginal cost of existing conventional power generation technologies..
More specifically, Lazard’s unsubsidized analysis shows the following LCOE comparison by level:
- Wind. From $ 28 / MWh to $ 54 / MWh.
- Photovoltaic thin film solar utility scale. From $ 32 / MWh to $ 42 / MWh.
- Combined gas cycle. From $ 44 / MWh to $ 68 / MWh.
- Coal. From $ 66 / MWh to $ 152 / MWh.
- Nuclear. From $ 118 / MWh to $ 192 / MWh.
- Gas peaks. From $ 150 / MWh to $ 199 / MWh.
In terms of increasing solar energy worldwide, solar energy seems to have the upper hand. Fitch Solutions Macro Research a subsidiary of the Fitch Group released a report on December 3 that showed that by 2021, the total installed capacity of solar energy will exceed the total installed capacity of wind energy. This view benefits from China’s optimistic outlook, which the company expects to increase during the period with 300 GW of solar capacity, and the company is also optimistic about solar prospects in the United States and India.
During our ten-year forecast period, these three markets (China, the US, and India) will account for nearly 70% of the global increase in net solar power generation. We also noticed that from small rooftop solar installations to large solar farms and relatively easy projects implemented in a timely manner, solar energy is suitable for use, which has laid the foundation for the widespread development of this technology.
Fitch expects the company’s purchase of renewable energy to drive US solar growth. Although many companies have favored wind energy in the past, we expect solar projects to be the company’s main choice for renewable energy supply in the coming years. The company also pointed out that compared with wind energy PTC, the solar CCI phase-out schedule is more favorable and becomes the basis of its forecast. In addition, compared to wind power plants, the power generation characteristics of solar power plants are generally more consistent because solar radiation is easier to predict and peaks on the day when many companies have the highest demand for electricity. Combined with cost competitiveness, these factors will drive companies to purchase solar projects through power purchase or on-site power generation agreements, thereby supporting our forecast of higher growth in the solar industry than in the wind energy industry.
Nevertheless, tax policies may have similar effects on solar energy development as they do on wind energy. Currently, solar ITC will drop from 30% in 2019 to 26% in 2020, 22% in 2021, 10% in 2022 and beyond for commercial projects. The credit line is the same as the credit line for residential projects, except that the credit line will fully expire in 2022. However, the solar industry is lobbying Congress to expand credit lines.
However, even though solar and wind energy show incredible prospects, energy storage is still likely to be the most likely growth in the power sub-sector. According to a survey by Merrill Corp., a software provider that provides software services to M & A lifecycle participants, energy storage is the most likely alternative energy investment in 2020 among 37.6% of respondents , Surpassing solar energy-the second highest investment in alternative energy (23.6%) and wind energy (10.1%).
The Brattle Group, a company that analyzes complex economic, financial, and regulatory issues for global companies, law firms, and governments, released a study in December that showed that the deployment of solar energy storage will be in It will increase sharply in the coming years. Favorable economies and policies are at the root of the trend towards energy storage juxtaposed with photovoltaic solar energy. He reports on three power purchase agreements recently approved by the Nevada Public Utilities Commission, which show encouraging prospects. A project in Nevada would be a 380 MW / 1,416 MWh system, which will become the largest battery unit in the world when it is commissioned. Research company BloombergNEF (BNEF) released an annual battery price survey on December 3, showing that battery prices exceeded US $ 1,100 / kWh in 2010, an actual decline of 87% to US $ 156. / kWh in 2019. The BNEF forecasts that if it is cumulative demand will exceed 2 TWh in 2024, prices will drop below $ 100 / kWh.
However, there is little uncertainty as to how the industry will reduce prices from $ 100 / kWh to $ 61 / kWh by 2030. The BNEF estimates that the energy density of batteries and battery packs will play a role. Increasing role because it allows more efficient use of materials. and manufacturing capabilities. He says that new technologies such as silicon or lithium anodes, semiconductor batteries and new cathode materials will be essential to reduce costs.
The evolution of new technologies can help to assemble all power supplies together. In an article published by the Renewable Energy team at Burns and McDonnell, the article sparked a major power event in November. Now, as public policies turn to the development of renewable energy as a strategy to fight climate change, hydroelectricity has become an excellent source of more share of electricity production. Numerical control technology is a key element in upgrading and expanding hydro capacity.
Digital technology integrates information technology/ operational technology, artificial intelligence and machine learning and big data analysis into traditional business processes and strategies. It is gradually becoming an asset-intensive company to improve its efficiency, achieve value and time changes more quickly and acquire new resources. Approaching business value and improving their business agility to meet growing long-term challenges in a global business environment.